Deindustrialization, Tertiarization and Development in a ‘GVC-World’: What do new trajectories of structural transformation mean for developing countries?
Project leads: Andy Sumner (King’s College London) and Arief Yusuf (Padjadjaran University)
Summary: The traditional pathway to economic development and structural transformation— industrialization—is becoming harder to start on and harder to sustain for developing countries as more countries compete over a place in fragmented global value chains (GVCs) or ‘GVC-world’. In fact, many middle-income developing countries are shifting to a new pathway, namely that of deindustrialization or tertiarization. The shift from traditional to new trajectories of structural transformation has implications for future economic growth, employment creation, inequality and poverty reduction in developing countries.
Publications
Working papers
| Andy Sumner | The Developer’s Dilemma: the Inequality Dynamics of Structural Transformation and Inclusive Growth |
| Kyunghoon Kim, Andy Sumner and Arief Anshory Yusuf | How Inclusive is Structural Change? The Case of Indonesia |
| Ravi Kanbur | Structural Transformation and Income Distribution: Kuznets and Beyond |
| Cinar Baymul and Kunal Sen | Was Kuznets Right? New Evidence on the Relationship between Structural Transformation and Inequality |
| Lukas Schlogl and Andy Sumner | The Rise of the Robot Reserve Army: Automation and the Future of Economic Development, Work and Wages in Developing Countries |
| Stefan Pahl and Marcel P. Timmer | Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View |
| Andy Sumner | Deindustrialization, Tertiarization and Development in a ‘GVC-World’: What do new trajectories of structural transformation mean for developing countries? |
Books
Sumner, A. (2018). Development and Distribution: Structural Change in Southeast Asia. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.
Journal articles
Sen, K. & Tyce, M. (2017). The elusive quest for high income status—Malaysia and Thailand in the post-crisis years. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2017.11.007.
Sen, K. (2017). What Explains the Job Creating Potential of Industrialisation in the Developing World? The Journal of Development Studies. DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2017.1404033.
Book chapters
Kyunghoon
Kim, Andy Sumner, and Arief Anshory Yusuf (2019) Is Structural Transformation-led Economic Growth
Immiserizing or Inclusive? The Case
of Indonesia. In: Immiserizing Growth. Paul Shaffer, Ravi Kanbur,
and Richard Sandbrook (eds). OUP: Oxford.
